Ahead of Ethereum's Shapella Hardfork, an upgrade of the Ethereum network scheduled to take place around 6:30pm EST April 12, traders are exhibiting uncertainty, according to a study by Kaiko. With the Shapella upgrade, ETH staking withdrawals will be enabled for the first time since December 2020 and it is likely to result in a sell pressure of between 1.2 - 3 million ETH over the first few weeks, which has influenced the hesitance of traders.

Kaiko's report revealed that Ethereum was trailing Bitcoin in both spot and futures trading volume. The Ether-Business-USD exchange rate was likewise at March 2021 lows near 30%, which is a significant decrease from the previous high of 53% during the Merge upgrade. Compounded to this, Open Interest (OI) volume relating to Bitcoin has outpaced Ethereum's during its latest raise to above $30,000.

The ratio between Ethereum's spot and perpetual trading volume also points to a lack of trading enthusiasm, declining far below levels from the Merge update. Ethereum options market data also showed increasing implied volatility for contracts expiring in April, which leads to the conclusion that more traders have been hedging their positions in expectation of larger price movements due to the upgrade. The market is anticipating great instability as the estimated sell intension can induce large market volatility over the course of the month.

Overall, the data collected for this report suggest that Ether has extremely struggled to keep up with Bitcoin, with traders exhibiting suspicion toward the Shapella fork. Bitcoin's tremendous 82.02% year-to-date appreciation has outpaced Ether's 59.82%, with the ETH/USD pair facing resistance at $2,000 per the technical and psychological standpoint. In addition the MACD indicator, a tool that follows the trend, is almost flat, illustrating a lack of bullish momentum.



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