Glassnode's on-chain data suggests that the current Bitcoin bull run is resembling the 2015-2018 market cycle. The data shows similarities in Realized Cap growth, drawdown patterns, and price performance. This indicates that Bitcoin may still have room to rally before reaching its peak. The market is maturing, with a slower price appreciation rate in each cycle, but it could enter a period of rapid price acceleration soon. Bitcoin's Realized Cap growth is also similar to the previous cycle at a comparable stage, suggesting further upside potential. The sustainability of the bull run depends on whether new buyers can absorb the supply being moved from long-term holders. A decline in Bitcoin balances on centralized exchanges has triggered speculation about a potential supply shock, but much of the decline is attributed to Bitcoin moving into ETF custody wallets. Additionally, the proportion of recently moved coins has not yet reached levels seen in previous cycle peaks, indicating that Bitcoin could still have room to rally. However, a significant spike in short-term holder activity could indicate increased speculation and potential for a correction. Currently, BTC is trading at $106,091.



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