Bitcoin (BTC) has been experiencing a classic stairstep bull run, with incremental price increases followed by periods of consolidation. The ongoing consolidation between $90,000 and $100,000 is the third phase of the bull run from $20,000, and many expect it to result in a bull breakout. However, there are three developments suggesting otherwise.

First, the tightening of fiat liquidity, particularly the U.S. Dollar (USD), is a negative factor for asset classes including crypto. USD liquidity is tightening due to several factors, which could lead to a slowdown in economic activity and a more challenging environment for risk assets like crypto.

Second, President Donald Trump's promise to establish a strategic BTC reserve seems to have shifted to an evaluation of feasibility, disappointing crypto investors. This change in stance caused BTC to fall from over $100,000 to $96,000.

Third, technical analysis shows a bearish divergence in the 14-week relative strength index (RSI), similar to the pattern seen in 2021. A bearish RSI divergence suggests a slowdown in bullish momentum, but it could be invalidated if the RSI crosses above the falling trendline.

Overall, these developments cast uncertainty on the expected bull breakout and suggest a potential slowdown or reversal in Bitcoin's price movement.



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