According to Polymarket bettors, there is an 86% chance that protesters from January 6 will receive a pardon from President Trump in his second White House term. There is also a 78% chance that Ross Ulbricht, the founder of Silk Road, will receive a pardon. Trump has argued that the January 6 protesters were unfairly targeted and has framed their actions as a response to a "rigged" election. During his campaign, Trump pledged to commute Ulbricht's sentence and pardon the January 6 defendants. Ulbricht's mother is leading a campaign to free him, arguing that his sentence is excessive. It should be noted that while the Polymarket contract is for a pardon, Trump has not made a promise to do so. There is also a 14% chance that Trump pardons himself and a 6% chance he pardons Sam Bankman-Fried.



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