The Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments, Jurrien Timmer, has shared his insights on Bitcoin's adoption and value trajectories. He has developed models that aim to simplify the complex growth dynamics of Bitcoin, focusing on adoption curves and macroeconomic variables. Timmer's updated charts show that Bitcoin's adoption trajectory remains steep, indicating its rapid but maturing growth. He also highlights the understated wallet growth measurement due to Bitcoin ETFs, which consolidate holdings into a few wallets. Timmer's new layer to his valuation framework incorporates money supply growth and real interest rates, demonstrating how external macroeconomic forces could influence Bitcoin's adoption and valuation. His work reinforces Bitcoin's position as a maturing financial asset and highlights the importance of adoption in driving its value. Timmer's models provide valuable insights for understanding Bitcoin's dual nature as both a network and a form of money, as well as its potential as a hedge against fiat currency debasement. Overall, his analysis showcases the evolving complexity and enduring relevance of Bitcoin in the financial world.



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