A new report suggests that a major supply shock in Bitcoin is unlikely to happen in 2025. The report focuses on the behavior of long-term holders (LTH) and their supply of Bitcoin post-halving. It reveals that LTH supply dominance fell by 9% in 2024, releasing 1.58 million BTC into the market. Based on historical trends, a projected transfer of 1.4 million BTC from LTH to short-term holders (STH) is expected in 2025, which will help meet increased demand from institutions or governments, mitigating supply constraints. The report also highlights that the impact of Bitcoin ETFs on supply is less significant than often suggested, as much of the accumulation is driven by cash-and-carry trades rather than direct investments. Market liquidity, exchange reserves, and improving liquidity conditions further support the assessment that a significant supply shock is unlikely, and the market is poised for measured growth within the established 4-year cycle framework.



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