Deutsche Bank's private banking arm is warning investors to prepare for increased volatility in the US Treasury market, as it suggests that US policymakers may not ease interest rates as aggressively as traders expect. The bank has forecasted a total of six rate cuts through September 2025, significantly lower than the nine rate cuts investors had anticipated. This mispricing could result in market turbulence if expectations do not align with the Federal Reserve's actual policy decisions. The bank predicts that the yield on 10-year Treasury notes will rise to 4.05% by September next year and believes the US economy will avoid a recession.



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