Prediction markets like Polymarket accurately predicted Donald Trump's strong showing in the 2024 U.S. election, while mainstream media and polls were caught off guard. These markets, which run on crypto rails and saw billions of dollars in trading volume this year, identified Trump as the favorite to win. Despite claims of manipulation and damage to democracy, the markets proved to be reliable sources of information. However, it is important to note that polls and other forecasting methods still have their place. Prediction markets were able to add some "alpha" into the forecasts that traditional methods may have missed. While this outcome is validating for prediction markets, it is best to evaluate their reliability over time and across multiple races. Overall, participants in these markets feel vindicated by their accurate predictions.



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