CandleFocus

77% Polymarket bets predict the Fed will cut rates by 25 bps in November

Author: Content Editor
Polymarket predicts that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in November, with CME FedWatch tracking the probability at 88%. The odds of a 50 basis point rate cut have fallen to 8%, and a cut of 75 basis points is highly unlikely. Over the past month, the favored prediction for a 25 basis point rate cut has increased from 32% to 82%. Deloitte's US economy forecast indicates that US growth will remain stable in 2024, driven by consumer spending, business investments, and lower interest rates. However, GDP growth is expected to slow down to 1.5% in 2025, and geopolitical conflicts and trade issues could lead to higher inflation and slower growth. Despite this, the report suggests the possibility of higher growth if emerging technologies like AI increase productivity.

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