Prediction market platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket, have seen significant trading volumes during the U.S. election cycle. Kalshi, which had a favorable court ruling against the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, has surpassed $30 million in trading volume on its main election contract. Polymarket, which does not allow U.S. traders but does not require a know-your-customer process, has reached over $2 billion in trading volume. Kalshi's regulated platform has allowed it to avoid allegations of market manipulation that have plagued Polymarket. Both platforms show Trump with a significant lead over Kamala Harris. However, there is a discrepancy between Polymarket's individual swing state markets and a contract about all swing states, suggesting potential arbitrage opportunities.



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