Two weeks before the U.S. presidential election, prediction markets are showing an increase in the odds of Donald Trump winning a second term. Traditional polling data suggests a close race, but Trump has gained ground in swing states according to recent polling data. Prediction markets have reacted strongly to these developments, with Trump's odds of victory now comfortably in the double digits. However, it is important to note that prediction markets are not a substitute for rigorous statistical models. There are suspicions of manipulation in the prediction markets, with four accounts placing around $30 million in bets showing similar patterns. It is also important to remember that prediction markets are profit-driven ventures focused on generating returns for the platform.



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