According to a recent analysis by Nansen, the price of Bitcoin currently lacks strong conviction for further bull movements. Despite remaining above the 200-day moving average, it is stuck below the 50-day moving average and the 20-day exponential moving average, indicating a lack of bull momentum. Nansen's flow framework of spot BTC ETFs also confirms this lack of conviction, with significant net outflows for nine consecutive days. In light of this, Nansen suggests a short-term strategy of buying near events with the maximum potential for fear and selling at peaks of local optimism. However, Nansen is currently waiting for clearer signals, such as price consolidation, stabilization in the tech stock market, and a rebound in US macroeconomic data. The uncertainty in US politics, particularly regarding tariffs and cryptocurrency regulation, adds to the overall uncertainty. Nansen advises a general investment strategy of waiting for the noise to pass and for "good announcements" to arrive, likely in the spring. The analysis concludes that it is currently difficult to identify a clear trend in the market and a clearer picture may not emerge until the end of March or even June.



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