CandleFocus

Polymarket users outperform economists in predicting US rate cuts

Author: Content Editor
The majority of economists incorrectly predicted a 25 basis points cut in the Fed interest rate decision on September 18, with 92% of forecasts being wrong. However, 54% of prediction market Polymarket users accurately bet on a 50 basis points cut. The bets on the Fed decision totaled nearly $59 million, with the majority of bets placed on "no change." Despite the incorrect predictions, there was optimism around a deeper rate cut and an increase in inflows towards Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The first US interest rate cut in four years had a positive impact on risk assets, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, Binance Coin, and Solana. The crypto market as a whole grew by 3.7%, exceeding $2.26 trillion in value. However, the equities market closed with losses. Earlier predictions on Polymarket also suggested a high probability of a rate cut.

Related News