Bitcoin's options expiring on October 5 are trading at higher implied volatility (IV) compared to options expiring on October 25. This suggests that traders are expecting a volatile weekend following Friday's release of the nonfarm payrolls (NFP) data and potential retaliatory strikes by Israel. The implied volatility term structure indicates bigger price swings on Saturday, possibly due to increased volatility from the NFP data and geopolitical tensions. Traders are pricing in the risk of significant price swings for Saturday, with a kink in the volatility curve. Additionally, there is a focus on the NFP data, which is expected to show an increase in jobs for September. Risks are skewed in favor of a hawkish repricing of Fed rate cuts, leading to dollar strength. The volatile situation in the Middle East, with tensions between Iran and Israel, is also contributing to the expectation of a volatile weekend.



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