The article discusses the difficulty in determining the current position in the business cycle since the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite negative GDP prints, there was a strong labor market. The Fed's rate hiking cycle did not cause a recession, and the stock market and GDP growth remained strong. However, the manufacturing and goods sector experienced a recession. Currently, leading indicators suggest that the manufacturing sector is recovering, with commodities breaking out and increased optimism in the business sector. The article concludes that we are in the early stages of a new business cycle thanks to fiscal stimulus and deficits.



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