CandleFocus

Yields up, rates down 

The US government's monthly 10-year Treasury note auction drew the highest yield since 2007, reaching 4.68%. Benchmark yields on 10-year notes have increased from around 3.7% to 4.7% since the Fed started its rate-cutting cycle in September. This is unusual as rate cuts typically signal an approaching recession, but this time the Fed is lowering rates due to declining inflation. Inflation expectations have increased for 2024, leading to a decrease in median projections for cuts to the fed funds rate. Bond traders are also reacting to concerns about Trump's incoming tariff policies. The situation is being closely monitored, with the latest Fed minutes expected to provide more insight.

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