CandleFocus

Where Prediction Markets Draw the Line on a Trump or Harris Election Win

Author: Content Editor
Prediction platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have gained popularity in allowing traders to wager on the outcome of the presidential election. Each platform has its own rules for determining the winner. Polymarket relies on a consensus among media publications, with a resolution occurring when multiple news outlets call the race for the same candidate. If there is no consensus, the winner will be based on who is inaugurated. Kalshi's winner is determined by the party that sees their candidate inaugurated, regardless of the running mate. Robinhood's election prediction market is tied to contracts from ForecastEx, with the winner determined by the certification process in Congress. Former President Trump, who has previously claimed the election was stolen, has already questioned the validity of future election results. Traders can lock in gains or losses by selling their shares on the platforms.

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