CandleFocus U.S. Election Betting: Polymarket 'Manipulation' Claims Miss the Mark
2024-11-04
Author: Content Editor
Mainstream media reports have suggested that the odds on Polymarket for Donald Trump winning the US presidential election are being manipulated for political purposes. However, experts and market participants have found little evidence of manipulation and believe any attempts to rig prices would be short-lived. Polymarket has confirmed that a single French national controls multiple accounts making large bets on Trump winning, but the trader claims to have no political agenda and is simply trying to make money. While Polymarket denies finding any evidence of manipulation, experts argue that the market would not succeed in the long term due to factors such as expected value, participation from large trading firms, and cross-market arbitrage. The speculation about manipulation is seen by some as an attempt by legacy media to discredit prediction markets.
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