Overcast
Candlefocus EditorFor example, a company might assume that sales growth will be 15% in the coming year without taking into account external factors such as economic recession or new competitors in the market. In this case, the 15% growth estimate may be overly optimistic, resulting in an overcast that is too high.
In a similar vein, overcasting may also occur when forecasting the required resources for an upcoming project. A project manager might assume that a certain project will only require 5 people but, in actuality, the project will require 10 people, resulting in an overcast.
The key to avoiding overcasting is to use realistic estimates. Estimators need to look at the overall market, pay close attention to external conditions, and be prepared to adjust expectations based on new information. Analysts need to have a clear understanding of the data and be mindful of the limitations of their models.
Overcasting doesn’t have to be a bad thing. While too aggressive of a forecast can have negative consequences, a well-considered and accurate forecast can help inform business decisions and set realistic expectations for a project. The key is to ensure that the estimates used are realistic and any assumptions are factored into the forecasting process. By doing this, businesses can get the best possible insights out of their forecasting efforts and anticipate potential issues before they arise.