CandleFocus Rate Cut Roulette: Bettors and Analysts Divided on Fed’s Next Step
2024-11-24
Author: Content Editor
According to CME Group's Fedwatch tool, there is a 52.7% chance of a quarter-point rate cut at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, while the odds of no rate change are at 47.3%. The tool calculates these probabilities based on the pricing of 30-day Federal Funds futures contracts. Analysts have mixed views on whether the Federal Reserve will lower rates in December, with some predicting a 0.25% cut due to recent inflation metrics and economic conditions, and others expecting a pause in rate adjustments based on strong economic signals. Polymarket bettors also show a divide, assigning 57% odds to a quarter-point reduction. The uncertainty in expert opinions highlights the current ambiguity in the market.
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