Contango
Candlefocus EditorContango is a situation in the commodities market where the price of a futures contract is higher than the price of the same commodity in the spot market. Futures markets are used to make hedging decisions, placing bets on future prices, and taking advantage of price swings in the market.
The most common type of contango occurs when the price of a future deal is higher than the current spot price. This can happen for a few different reasons, including market expectation about potential future demand and price dynamics, seasonal buying patterns, or changes in supply or production costs.
How Does Contango Affect Commodities Trading?
Contango usually reflects expectations that the asset’s price will rise in the future, or that future prices will be higher than the spot price. This means that if an investor is trading commodity futures, they will typically benefit from an increase in the price of the underlying asset.
If the price of the underlying asset decreases, however, they may experience a loss due to the higher cost of the futures contract. This loss can be especially pronounced in the commodities markets, where prices can be particularly volatile.
As futuress contracts approach expiration, the prices tend to converge towards the underlying spot price. This means that experienced traders can use arbitrage and other strategies to exploit this situation and potentially turn a profit.
What About Commodity Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs)?
Commodity ETFs are one of the most popular types of exchange traded funds, and provide a convenient way for investors to access the commodities markets. However, the use of futures contracts to gain exposure to the commodities markets can result in a phenomenon known as “contango drag”, where the loss due to the higher cost of the futures contract outweighs any potential gain.
To avoid this, investors should consider ETFs that directly hold the underlying commodities instead of using futures contracts. These types of ETFs will provide exposure to the underlying asset without the issue of contango drag.
Conclusion
Contango can be an important factor to consider when trading commodities. Futures markets are used in order to hedge, or place bets on the future prices of commodities. When the price of a future contract is higher than the spot price, it is said to be in “contango”. Traders who are aware of this phenomenon can use arbitrage and other strategies to exploit this situation and potentially turn a profit. Additionally, investors who are interested in accessing the commodities market through ETFs should be aware of the potential problem of “contango drag”, where the higher cost of the futures contracts can outweigh any potential gains. These investors should consider ETFs that directly hold the underlying commodities instead of using futures contracts.