Two U.S.-regulated prediction markets, Kalshi and Interactive Brokers' ForecastEx, have launched dollar-denominated betting on the upcoming presidential race. However, trading volumes on these platforms are modest compared to Polymarket, a crypto-powered prediction market, which has seen over $1.2 billion staked on the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. While it may be challenging for Kalshi and ForecastEx to catch up, some traders may switch from Polymarket to the other platforms. Kalshi's products are not available to foreign nationals and certain excluded groups, unlike Polymarket. Despite price differences between the platforms, there is a margin of inefficiency that discourages arbitrage. Kalshi, which sued the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) after its application was denied, won the case and listed congressional contracts before they were frozen and then later revived. The CFTC has asked the appeals court to expedite the case, but has seemingly given up on halting trading before the election.
- Content Editor ( coindesk.com )
- 2024-10-04
U.S. Election Betting: Regulated Presidential Markets Are Live, and Tiny Compared to Polymarket's