The odds of Donald Trump winning the U.S. presidential election on Polymarket temporarily decreased after one of the prediction market's largest holders of "yes" shares placed bets on his opponent, Kamala Harris. The trader, known as Theo4, had previously amassed 12 million "yes" shares in Trump's victory. The trades by Theo4 and another major holder of Trump shares, Fredi9999, have raised suspicion among market watchers and media outlets. Some speculate that these two traders and three other Polymarket accounts are controlled by the same entity outside the U.S. Trump's odds dropped from 65% to as low as 59% but rebounded to 63%. The controversy highlights the concerns of market manipulation and the debate over whether such activity provides opportunities for informed traders or distorts the market. Polymarket has banned U.S. traders under a settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission but reports suggest that some Americans are circumventing this restriction using VPNs. The CFTC has been trying to prevent election betting but it is still a growing trend, as evidenced by Polymarket's $2.3 billion volume on its U.S. presidential contact for the 2024 election.



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