Polymarket, a prediction market platform, experienced a significant decline in Trump's betting odds after a whale investor sold $3 million worth of Trump shares. The sell-off was triggered by a tweet from high-profile crypto advisor GCR, who mentioned taking profits on his Trump bets. The selling pressure caused Trump's odds to drop by 4% before slightly recovering. GCR's comments led to a frenzy among traders on Crypto Twitter, with some jokingly referring to their leveraged Trump positions based on his predictions. GCR warned against leverage and emphasized the importance of probabilistic thinking. GCR had been betting on Trump's odds for several years, believing they were severely underpriced. He cashed out when his projections proved accurate and expressed satisfaction with his gains. The sell-off raised eyebrows and sparked further speculation about Trump's odds. The largest Trump bets on Polymarket were made by an individual named Théo, who has invested over $30 million in Trump's victory. Théo claimed that his intention was solely to make money and denied any manipulation attempt. Polymarket confirmed that they were investigating Théo's Trump bets. Some experts find Théo's bets unlikely, as he wagered on Trump winning both the Electoral College and popular vote. Théo could potentially earn over $80 million if his bets prove correct but also risks losing his entire $30 million investment if Vice President Kamala Harris wins. Théo spread his bets across multiple accounts to avoid attention and spiking prices. He expressed skepticism about polling adjustments since 2016 and 2020 and criticized mainstream media for biased coverage.
- Content Editor ( cryptopolitan.com )
- 2024-11-04
Trump odds tank on Polymarket as whale dumps $3M, following GCR’s tweet