Summary: The probability of Donald Trump winning the US Presidential election has increased on prediction platforms Polymarket and Kalshi, with Trump leading Kamala Harris by over 16 percentage points. Polymarket's Presidential Election Winner bet has reached a market volume of $3 billion. Kalshi also shows Republicans with an 80% chance of winning Senate elections and Democrats leading with 52% for the House. As of November 3, 75 million Americans have voted early, equivalent to half the total votes in the 2020 election. Early voting schedules vary by state, but in at least 9 states, over 50% of eligible voters have already voted.



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