The article discusses the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting where the U.S. central bank will decide whether to lower the benchmark interest rate. According to CME futures data, a half-point reduction in the interest rate is currently seen as more likely than a quarter-point adjustment. The likelihood of a 50 basis point cut stands at 53.3%, while the odds of a 25 basis point reduction are at 46.7%. The odds could still change in the next 40 days leading up to the meeting. The recent increase in the U.S. 'Core' Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index has contributed to the increased chances of a half-point reduction. The article also mentions that there are no odds for a three-quarter point reduction and that market bettors give it a slim 2% chance on Polymarket. The uncertainty surrounding the Fed's decision is highlighted, and upcoming economic data and election results will play a crucial role in the outcome.



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