The Chicago Fed's National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) has fallen to -0.56, indicating the loosest financial conditions since bitcoin's cycle high in 2021. This suggests that bitcoin thrives in risk-on environments, as it has more than doubled in the last 12 months as financial conditions ease. The NFCI provides insights into liquidity, credit availability, and market risk, with a negative value indicating looser financial conditions. The negative correlation between the NFCI and bitcoin suggests that when financial conditions loosen, bitcoin tends to rally. This relationship has been observed in previous market cycles as well. However, other factors such as the strength of the U.S. dollar also impact bitcoin's trajectory. With continued easing of financial conditions, the outlook for bitcoin and speculative investments could remain positive, provided other economic factors remain supportive.



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